Monday, July 25, 2016

Obama is right: America is relatively safe these days.

For the two guys that read my posts, you are aware that I disagree with President Obama on just about everything he says, does, believes and thinks.

But when he's right (every other blue moon or so), he's right.  And rather than blindly disagree with a glaring truth (being the right wing nut job that I am), I will back up President Obama's assertion: you are in virtually (statistically speaking) no danger of walking out of your front door and getting mowed down by a terrorist wielding an AK-47.  You just aren't.

Donald Trump's acceptance speech was criticized by Obama as being dark, alarmist and exaggerated about the danger that Americans face today, and he says that we have never lived in a more peaceful world than now.  That's unarguably true, if you look at the statistics.

We are all aware of ISIS and their tactics; blow up a very public place, encourage lone wolf assholes to take out as many innocent victims as possible while shouting 'alahu ahkbar,' and make as big of a splash in the headlines as they can.  The body count in Nice was 90 innocents.  49 were killed in Orlando.  14 people were killed by terrorists in San Bernardino.  Home grown Black Lives Matter murderers ambushed and killed 5 officers in Dallas, and another 3 in Baton Rouge.

Very big headlines.  Lots of hand wringing about the world gone to hell in a hand basket.  But the body count is just not what it was in the 'good ol' days.'  It just flat out isn't.

In the American Civil War (or the War of Northern Aggression, if you are a dumb yokel who doesn't know any better), 750,000 people were killed during 1861-1865.  In World War I, another 53,000 Americans died in that conflict.  In World War II, 291,000 Americans were lost.  Vietnam saw 47,000 U.S. soldiers die.

Those were dangerous times.  A million deaths in times of war in U.S. history over the last 100 plus years, that is living in dangerous times.  The likelihood of a mother losing her son back in those days was relatively high in times of armed conflict.

But only a couple of hundred deaths (not counting Chicago, where black on black crime is considered normal every day life and death) in the last year?  That's relatively nothing, statistically speaking. This is living in peace, given the violence we have seen in our history over the long term.

We are not at a full scale war with any existential threat, such as was the case with the Empire of Japan and the Nazi threats 70 years ago.  

Donald Trump is taking the headlines of a few deaths, as awful as they are, and blowing things out of proportion to advance his political agenda (as all politicians do).  We are still living in a country where we can go to the mall, go to the ball game and not really worry about getting killed.  

We are living in peace, currently. 

Relatively speaking.  And this is Obama's point.  He is right.    


Euripides said...

Agreed. Low level warfare has been going on since the dawn of time.

The danger isn't the low level warfare, but the possibilities of destabilization that can come with ignoring low level threats. No, ISIS isn't going to directly invade the US. They don't have to since we're welcoming Muslims into the US by the hundreds of thousands. Mix that with the mistaken idea that socialism is a pretty good system of government, and we leave the US in danger of collapsing from within, only to be replaced by not-so-nice people who want to rule with an iron fist. That is the existential threat.

LL said...

If you live in a ghetto, it's dangerous. And it's not only murders, it's robbery, rape, nighttime burglaries, home-invasion robberies, etc.

If you live in a suburb (largely white), it's safe enough.

Barack should frame it properly.

Gorges Smythe said...

Technically, you're correct. However, thanks in part to Obama, that may be changing eventually, especially in larger cities where concealed carry is low.

Fredd said...

Rip: yes, a long term existential threat is virtually the norm in every situation from the time man crawled out of the ooze. I agree with that. Rome fell in this very way, as the barbarians slowly collapsed their culture.

But I appreciate the initial agreement with me and Barry. In the short term, it's inarguable, we are living in peace. Statistically.

Fredd said...

LL: statistically speaking, ghettos, barrios, slums, etc. are the exception, not the norm. Lots more nice places to live in the US than hell holes. Living in a slum with shots ringing out night and day is an anectdotal exeption.

We live in peace. Statistically.

Kid said...

What LL said. Some places are static, many places get worse by the minute. We had 'the projects' in Pittsburgh when I lived there in the 70's. Not much crime and almost no killing - unless like some idiot you'd drive through there at night and yell 'I hate N-------" like my little brother did once and lived to tell about it.. Well, not much killing even in the 'bad areas' then. Not so today.

Devil in the details as usual.

Anyway, I don't see where war statistics apply to America being safe. Those events occurred outside America. I maintain that America is not safer nor more peaceful. Catch several episodes of First 48 for example. An endless stream of young black kids killing people for nothing and this is escalating and that's just a small slice of what is going on. Add in the perverts, pedophiles, rapists, mother rapists, father rapers, baby rapers, Nambla guys, Psycho killers, and just plain violent democrats and things are much more dangerous on the whole here in these days.

Leave out the hot teachers seducing young boys however. Those gals have Always been in demand and appreciated. Abuse? Please abuse me some more say's my 10 year old self.

LL said...

The festering hell holes are all Democrat strongholds. That's my point.

But America, by in large, is safe.

Fredd said...

Kid: war stats aside, the killing and violence is elevated in hell holes, where Americans stay away. As always. Would any sane white American walk the streets of Bedford Stuyvesant back in the 1970's? Absolutely not. Other than Billy Joel.

Other than hell holes, the killing and violence is about the same in peace time now as it has been for a long time. There have always been deviants and pervs running around, but in the 1970's nobody had a camera at the ready every second of the day to catch them in their dirty deeds, and there was no 24 hour news cycle broadcasting these dirty deeds day and night. It just SEEMS that there is more of this going on, when it's about the same.

Other than hell holes where blacks kill each other for no other reason than because they seem to enjoy it. And the surviving blacks in those hell holes vote for Democrats every time to ensure that their hell hole remains the hell hole that they know and love.

Fredd said...

LL: Democrat controlled festering hell holes really have to be left out of the analysis. They are outliers, statistically. Much like taking a poll about how angry Americans are: would you send your pollster to prisons to ask the inmates how much they enjoy life? No, hell holes have to remain the exception. That, and everybody knows where these hell holes are, and if you have any sanity whatsoever, you avoid them like the plague.

sig94 said...

If you eliminate the homicides of America's 50 largest cities from the national total, the national homicide rate per 100,000 drops from 4.5 to 3.6.

The 50 largest American cities have a combined homicide rate of 9.3 per 100k.

Fredd said...

Sig: a complete indictment of Democrat policies in these largest cities, I'll wager that Democrat mayors rule in every damn one of them, and have for a very long time.

I keep saying: Democrats are bad for your health. Especially if you live in a large city. And if that city is Chicago, you may as well buy your grave site now, it'll save your loved ones some hassle in due course.

Z said...

We can't compare the numbers of dead in combat arenas of war with what's going on at the Orlanda Club or San Bernardino Christmas party, can we?
My friend called Saturday asking if I wanted to see the Hillary movie...I couldn't go...she said she was a bit nervous about going at all so she was going to the matinee, when less people might make that theater less a target.
Another friend's daughter wants to fly to France and sing at a Christian community in the mountains....she's nervous about sending her due to terrorism.

Can we at least admit THIS IS NEW to AMERICA and it's because of the recent killings, getting more recent by the week, that we should not feel we're safer?

Fredd said...

Z: We're at war with a puny enemy. A brutal, evil enemy, but still puny. They can only attack with one or two 'soldiers' at a time, and the death tolls are low, compared to the earlier wars the US waged.

Therefore, we are still living in relative peace, but waging war against a very tiny force. But that force is great at grabbing headlines and pretending that they are bringing us to our knees. They aren't.

LSP said...

For what it's worth, I predict a downturn in inner city crime/violence as they revert back to farmland. As in Detroit.