With Barack Obama's popularity plummeting, his confidence polls tanking, his foreign policy acumen doubted by the entire planet, and his general incompetence in full view for all to see, the GOP could literally field the Howdy Doody/Bozo the Clown ticket and win in a landslide in 2012. We'll see.
Since the bar is now set so low, let's handicap the front running contenders for the Republican nod, shall we?
1. Donald Trump: 2 to 1 odds that he's our guy at the end of the nomination process. 'The Donald' seems to have a leg up at this moment in time, and for good reason: he's an extremely deep pocketed populist, who will say anything that gets him noticed. Like getting tough with China. Or OPEC. And I like this one: just take $1.5 Trillion dollars worth of oil from Iraq to cover our costs of emancipating them from the hated Saddam Hussein. Just take it. And when I say extremely deep pocketed, I mean that The Donald makes a filthy rich Ross Perot look like a hot dog stand vendor in downtown Manhattan (and those guys make 6-figures-trust me on that one). With the big, greasy gobs of money he has at his disposal to throw into his campaign, he should be an exceptionally formidable candidate, and all of that tsunami of money will be spent to muddy and obscure his squishy, wishy-washy ever changing social positions that will curdle any social conservative voter's views of him.
2. Sara Palin: Give Sara about 3 to 1 odds to head up the ticket. On the positive side, Sara Palin has all of the red meat issues down with her conservative base: pro-life, pro-business, pro-capitalism, pro-religion, etc. She's got all the bases covered, and preaches them from the confines of principled core values that are unshakable. With Sara, you get what you see. On the negative side, her voice is an octave or two too high (shrill, some say) and she without a doubt has got to be the most hated, despised and loathed figure that the left has ever witnessed, even more hated than Nixon, Bush 43 or Reagan, and I didn't think that was even possible. Again, to the positive: all three guys, Nixon, Bush and Reagan were two term presidents. Despite the hate and loathing from the left.
3. Chris Christie. What's not to like about this guy? Well, if you are a conservative, that is. Like Palin, he is an unapologetic conservative to the bone, and is chalking up a great track record in New Jersey in standing up to big government lefties, teachers unions and other socialist interests. He swears he is not running, but don't they all. Give the Big Guy about 4 to 1 odds of grabbing the nod.
4. Mike Huckabee. Like 'The Donald,' Huckabee loves to present his politics via populism. And it works, to a point. He has a bit of baggage to shake off, namely pardoning that murderer who ultimately walked into a coffee shop in Seattle and executed several off-duty policemen and women. That, and his tax record as governor gives some fiscal conservatives the heebie jeebies. Other than that, Mike is a solid, God fearing capitalist who could go all the way. Give him 5 to 1 odds to be the last man standing at the GOP convention.
5. Mitt Romney. Mitt has got lots going for him: the chiseled features, the Hollywood hair, the smooth and confident manner and a great political pedigree. All of that counts, but as we all recall in 2008, he didn't exactly put the Mormon haters out to pasture like he could have. And his biggest challenge: he has to explain away his mini-Obamacare health care plan enacted under his tenure as Massachusetts governor, and which is now floundering in red ink. Six to 1 odds to prevail at the convention, at best for Mitt.
OUT OF THE RUNNING:
6. Newt Gingrich. Ah, Newt, Newt, Newt. The smartest guy in the room. The guy with all the answers. The architect of the 1994 Republican Revolution. All of that said, what has he done for us lately? Write about 10 or 20 books about principled reform of an out of control socialist government, and then immediately throw his support behind Dede Scazofavva in New York (a documented liberal). Marry and discard two or three wives, give or take a few, and irritate the social conservatives to no end. Newt is also a populist, who is right up there with Reagan, Dubya, Nixon and Sara Palin as the most loathed and despised by the left. In any event, Newt has virtually no chance. Almost none whatsoever. Give him 100 to 1, since I am inclined to hedge my bets on his spirit of competition: he is still the fiery back bencher that he always was.
7. Tim Pawlenty. Enough said. A million to one odds, and I am being generous here.
8. Pat Paulsen. Even though he's dead, Tim Pawlenty and perennial presidential candidate Pat Paulsen have the exact same odds of getting the GOP nomination. Don't make me do the math, here....
9, 10 and on and on.... The rest of the gang, I won't bother mentioning their names, none of them have a chance. A gazillion to one chance for any of the rest.
Bets, anyone?
5 hours ago
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16 comments:
Christie (and possibly Pawlenty I need to know more about him) is the only one on the list I could vote for without holding my nose.
One advantage to Palin winning is that it would put the left into a permanent apoplectic fit, probably resulting in at least half of them stroking out.
None of the above for me, we are screwed at this point.
Silver:
As for me, I am holding my nose each and every day I wake up smelling the fetid stench of the current administration (regime).
I could easily vote for any registered Republican whose name was picked entirely and completely at random from any local registration list of any precinct without holding my nose. That includes all of the above.
Christopher:
Yeah, all of the above have baggage, some more than others (right, Newt?).
Fredd: You do put things in perspective. I'd vote for a chia pet over Obama.
I'm not a fan of trump. I'm surprised Ron Paul not at least a long shot on your list.
Trestin:
Ron Paul is lumped into the 9 and 10 gang: a gazillion to one long shot.
Actually, I will round Ron Paul's chances off to zero. He's totally unelectable.
I am waiting for the as of yet undeclared. As to the mention of Newt,,paaalease give me a break.
Christopher:
Technically, nobody except Barack Obama has officially declared their intent to seek the presidential nomination, GOP or Dem.
Michele Bachmann is building up some steam, and has a pretty thick political skin, she may be the dark horse here. I like her a lot. Paul Ryan would be the next coming of Ronald Reagan, and conservatives would be deliriously happy to see him toss his hat into the ring. Won't happen, but we can always dream...
And Newt, newt newt. Sadly, I have to mention his sad, worn out name since he will likely throw his name into the hat, too. Sigh.
Well, I know the Democrat media want romney or huckleberry to win the nomination. I'm optimistic I won't have to puke next election as I write in the name Marco Rubio knowing that obama will probably win again.
Agree Christie 4 to 1.
Trump is not going to win the nomination. He is either a lightning rod for the red team, or he wants the dems to win again and will run as an Inde to make that happen by splitting the vote.
Palin is not even going to come close to running. Forget Sarah.
Newt will give it the old college try.
Well, I don't like polls, but the polls say the majority of red team voters aren't happy with Any of the candidates bandied about thus far. That certainly describes me.
That's good news that we might actually elect a conservative. The bad news is that a conservative my not be in the running or even run for that matter.
Fredd, regards you comment back to Silver. I think it would be less detrimental to have obama for another 4 years than to have romney run and win. Reason being that a whole lot of people, myself included, would just figure it doesn't matter which party you vote for then so why bother. If we don't get a conservative, backed up by a conservative congress, it won't matter one iota. The can cannot be kicked down the road any further.
Pat Paulson: "If nominated I will not run. If elected I will not serve."
Even dead he's better than what we've got.
Kid:
I'd rather see Hugo Chavez in the White House than Obama. At least he is up front as to the Marxist dictator he is.
Joe:
I'm with you. We can elect Pat Paulson, exhume Pat Paulson's body, prop the casket up in the Oval Office, and we would be better off this way.
No vetoes, no bills signed, no nothing. I like the concept. He could wind up being one of our greatest presidents.
Palin is looking strong!..Trump is making strides but has a long history of NOT being conservative so we shall see eh!
Woman:
Sad, but true: Trump is really no conservative in his heart of hearts. But I could say that about the GOP nominee in the last FIVE presidential elections:
1992: Old Bush, recall his pooh-poohing of then-candidate Ronald Reagan's 'voodoo economics', the stuff the rest of us conservatives call free market capitalism.
1996; Bob Dole, who would walk a mile over broken glass barefooted just to compromise his principles with any Democrat he could find.
2000: Dubya. First thing W did in office? Slap a tariff on foreign steel. Not exactly real conservative stuff, eh? And his spending like a drunken sailor was not the stuff of conservatives, either.
2004: Dubya again. See above.
2008: McCain. I need not really make a case against McCain's conservative standing. He just flat out ain't one of us.
2012: Trump? Why break our streak?
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